PRODUCTION PLANNING OR VOLUME FORECASTING

Production planning means the forecasting of the volume of sales for and establishment, for a specific time period, for example a day, a week, or a month.

The aims and objectives of production planning are:-

  • To facilitate food cost control
  • To facilitate the purchasing of perishable items and ensure adequate stock level.
  • To reduce the problem of leftover and its re-use
  • To gear production to demand by forecasting the no. of meals
  • To enable comparison between actual and potential volume of sales
  • To predict the total number of meals to be sold in each selling outlet of the hotel
  • To predict the choice of menu items by customers
  • To facilitate food and beverage purchasing
  • To ensure availability of all necessary ingredients required.
  • To ensure appropriate level o stock of ingredients

Other tools for production planning:-

  • Portion sales analysis
  • Popularity ratio
  • Portion sales history
  • Cycle menu (dishes rotation per day)
  • Cyclic menu ( rotation of menus per week or fore-quarterly

The following steps used as a guide in forecasting:-

  • Estimating the total no. of covers
  • Estimating the popularity ratio of each de jour menu item
  • Calculating the no. of portions of each menu items
  • Banquet and employee meals
  • Chef changes and adjusted total

Types of production planning or volume forecasting

  1. Initial volume forecast:- it is prepared a week in advance and indicates:-
  2. The estimated meals to be taken in each selling outlet.
  3. The estimated total of each menu item for each day of the following menu week

The basis of initial volume forecast are:-

  • Past records or sales histories
  • Advance booking and reservations
  • Current events
  • Current trends

Ones the initial forecast is complete the next step are:-

  • Conversion of predicted sales of each menu item into quantities of food-stuff for which standard recipes and portion conversion charts are used, if required.
  • The purchasing officer uses the list and the requisition order for placing the purchase order. He has also to keep in mind the time, the economic order quantity and the storage capacity and the facilities of the hotel.
  1. Final volume forecasting:-

This forecasting takes place the day before the preparation of the service of the particular meal. The final forecasting is based on:-

  • The previous days’ food production and sales figures.
  • The weather condition

On comparison of the initial forecast require substantial alterations, the purchase order sent to the suppliers are amended as soon as possible. The copies of the final volume forecast are sent immediately to:-

  • Food and beverage manager
  • Food and beverage controller
  • Chief executive chef
  • Restaurant manager
  • Purchase officer
  • Stock manager
  • Others- to whom information is of use.

SALES HISTORIES

It is a detailed record of actual sales and potential sales for a selling outlet of a hotel.  It is prepared for a particular trading period. Separate records are kept of the sales from each type of menu and a comparison made to check that the table d hote menu does become too popular or too convenient for the waiting staff. A check is made on waiter’s bills for week which give an idea about the sale of a la carte menu.

The purpose of sales history is to provide a record of food produced and sold compared with the forecasting figures which can be used as a reference for forecasting future demand. (Figure 9.3)